{
  "id": "palimpsest-news:cross-layer",
  "slug": "cross-layer-lead-lag",
  "url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/cross-layer-lead-lag/",
  "signal_id": "cross-layer",
  "headline": "Cross-layer lead and lag: no current finding",
  "dek": "The source is stale. Palimpsest keeps the availability and evidence record visible without publishing retained values as current news.",
  "section": "command",
  "order": 5,
  "type": "methodology",
  "priority": "background",
  "status": "stale",
  "published_at": "2026-08-24T17:22:36Z",
  "modified_at": "2026-08-24T17:22:36Z",
  "claim_fingerprint": "sha256:0162a90bf58d9bdceca4a092ea7f87557c6256a92e07c12c2b7faa8a9e2f3cd1",
  "metric": {
    "label": null,
    "value": null,
    "unit": null,
    "denominator": {
      "label": null,
      "value": null
    }
  },
  "claims": [
    {
      "type": "availability",
      "statement": "No current finding is published for Cross-layer lead and lag because the source status is stale."
    }
  ],
  "evidence": {
    "url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/cross-layer-latest.json",
    "input": {
      "filename": "cross-layer-latest.json",
      "sha256": "fefb6c36c763bcd0d75ac4b1dc0986871e887a7eb74bbca9870c22d1ea824f55",
      "bytes": 10602
    },
    "source_timestamp": "2026-08-24T17:22:36Z"
  },
  "method": {
    "summary": "each signal collapsed to a daily mean and DIFFERENCED (day-over-day change), then for every CROSS-layer pair the lag in [-7,7] days maximising |Pearson r|. Significance against a CIRCULAR-SHIFT null: one series is rotated against the other over every admissible offset (shifts within 7d of zero excluded), which preserves each series' own autocorrelation while destroying true alignment; p = (#{null >= observed}+1)/(n+1), exact and deterministic. Holm-Bonferroni step-down at alpha=0.05 across all pairs.",
    "version": 1
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Current finding withheld: freshness deadline has passed",
    "Lead-lag association can establish temporal co-movement but cannot establish that one layer caused another."
  ],
  "related_signal_ids": [
    "forecast-ledger",
    "board-alarm"
  ]
}