{
  "schema_version": "palimpsest-event-analysis.v2",
  "analysis_id": "analysisv-eb73caefbba16a02a90a9273",
  "event_id": "event-d5557fefd8f78cf3a1c9386a",
  "event_version_id": "eventv-f158600144e0c6635013c1c1",
  "event_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/wire/event-d5557fefd8f78cf3a1c9386a/",
  "url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/wire/event-d5557fefd8f78cf3a1c9386a/analysis.json",
  "generated_at": "2026-11-02T07:13:26Z",
  "disposition": "collector-abstention",
  "scope_status": "in-scope",
  "position": "Palimpsest withholds a collector-backed conclusion because one or more declared measurement surfaces are not current. No archive-news-context row matches this event_id. 71 same-window events share a declared topic. Official-page corroboration coverage is none-reviewed. No interconnection peer met an exact join key.",
  "rationale": [
    "The dossier contains one independent source group. Palimpsest treats it as an attributed report, not independent corroboration.",
    "1 of 3 declared collector surfaces are not live, so Palimpsest does not issue a collector-backed view."
  ],
  "evidence_assessment": {
    "strength": "single-source",
    "independent_groups": 1,
    "source_count": 1,
    "conclusion": "The dossier contains one independent source group. Palimpsest treats it as an attributed report, not independent corroboration."
  },
  "collector_context": [
    {
      "signal_id": "bleedthrough",
      "status": "live",
      "headline": "Controlled external probes publish a current injector-tomography round",
      "finding": "A current controlled DNS-probe round is available for injector-tomography analysis.",
      "metric": {
        "label": "injector response-process floor",
        "value": 2,
        "unit": "count",
        "denominator": {
          "label": "injecting target IPs",
          "value": 210
        }
      },
      "source_timestamp": "2026-11-02T06:57:28Z",
      "story_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/bleedthrough-injector-tomography/",
      "evidence_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/bleedthrough-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": "380deccf9dd2ae4a010ec020041850f394a014db780a2342fad30763f365a900",
      "claim_fingerprint": "sha256:7c3a0ab8b22ae4d3aa52b8ded2bbd8c9b13ed39f7d5376346a19cfda1004bb59",
      "method_summary": "the censor as sensor — benign stateless UDP DNS probes provoke the GFW's own injectors to answer; we fingerprint the fleet from the forgeries. Transport this round: direct injection over dark IPs. Direct receive windows overlap; outbound sends remain rate-capped. Injector count is a FLOOR, not a census: each injector answers a given query at most once, so a silent injector is undercounted.",
      "method_version": 3,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "Current aggregate collector reading. It is relevant context only; the wire declares no timed, claim-specific verification join."
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "in-path-interference",
      "status": "live",
      "headline": "Middlebox signatures register at 1.09% in the current OONI window",
      "finding": "The current measurement-weighted middlebox index is 1.09%.",
      "metric": {
        "label": "middlebox index",
        "value": 1.09,
        "unit": "percent",
        "denominator": {
          "label": "completed middlebox tests",
          "value": 5130
        }
      },
      "source_timestamp": "2026-11-02T07:13:26Z",
      "story_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/in-path-interference/",
      "evidence_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/in-path-interference-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": "f2f836fcddf1b02016f3d5e72be63f16e3e696fb5773747280cc1a79f4758dd9",
      "claim_fingerprint": "sha256:b83616574fb92d7be024631901b7c86f7106e7d4ed89039e31117022950bd10d",
      "method_summary": "rates are computed over COMPLETED tests only (measurement_count - failure_count). OONI's anomaly counter ranges only over completed runs, so a test that never completes has no anomaly rate — it has an execution-failure rate, reported separately",
      "method_version": 1,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "Current aggregate collector reading. It is relevant context only; the wire declares no timed, claim-specific verification join."
    },
    {
      "signal_id": "inside-view",
      "status": "stale",
      "headline": "Inside-China view: no current finding",
      "finding": "No current finding is published for Inside-China view because the source status is stale.",
      "metric": {
        "label": null,
        "value": null,
        "unit": null,
        "denominator": {
          "label": null,
          "value": null
        }
      },
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-11T07:49:24Z",
      "story_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/inside-china-view/",
      "evidence_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/inside-view-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": "e49626eb47a5d66135cf33e0831c8af64a930c3133b6a606f875bae2de529ce0",
      "claim_fingerprint": "sha256:265148c2e70552bc56461531e24395d874bc3ace215ab616f4ace08924e6169a",
      "method_summary": "a CN answer is forged when it shares no address with the control arm's answer set; no forged-IP list is hardcoded, because the injector pool rotates",
      "method_version": 2,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "Collector status is stale; retained values are not treated as a current finding."
    }
  ],
  "peer_context": [
    {
      "peer": "greatfire",
      "status": "miss",
      "sentence": "GreatFire has no cached 90-day verdict for this host in the current peer warehouse.",
      "as_of": null,
      "peer_url": null,
      "title": null,
      "excerpt": null,
      "host": "blog.apnic.net",
      "measurement_count": null,
      "anomaly_rate": null,
      "verdict": null,
      "window_days": 90,
      "attribution": "GreatFire Analyzer, CC BY 4.0. Palimpsest is not the origin of these measurements.",
      "relation": "peer-context-not-palimpsest-capture"
    },
    {
      "peer": "ooni",
      "status": "miss",
      "sentence": "OONI has no China measurements on this host in the local warehouse or ooni-gfw-latest reading.",
      "as_of": null,
      "peer_url": null,
      "title": null,
      "excerpt": null,
      "host": "blog.apnic.net",
      "measurement_count": null,
      "anomaly_rate": null,
      "verdict": null,
      "window_days": null,
      "attribution": "OONI Probe / OONI data. Palimpsest is not the origin of these measurements.",
      "relation": "peer-context-not-palimpsest-capture"
    },
    {
      "peer": "weiboscope",
      "status": "abstain",
      "sentence": "Historical Weiboscope volume is not on this node (Fu, Chan, Chau 2013; doi:10.25442/hku.16674565).",
      "as_of": null,
      "peer_url": "https://doi.org/10.25442/hku.16674565",
      "title": "Weiboscope Open Data (2012)",
      "excerpt": null,
      "host": null,
      "measurement_count": null,
      "anomaly_rate": null,
      "verdict": null,
      "window_days": null,
      "attribution": "Weiboscope / HKU Journalism and Media Studies Centre. Historical 2012 volume is not stored on this node.",
      "relation": "peer-context-not-palimpsest-capture"
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Palimpsest retained feed title, canonical link, publication time, and a bounded excerpt; it did not fetch or semantically evaluate the article body.",
    "Independent-source counts describe publication structure, not the truth, completeness, or intent of the underlying claims.",
    "Collector links are predeclared topical surfaces, not a timed or claim-specific match to this event.",
    "A current collector value may post-date the article and cannot by itself establish cause, coordination, impact, verification, or refutation.",
    "Live-family joins use exact URL or declared topic overlap only; absence of a reading is a coverage gap.",
    "Interconnection peers attach only on a named exact key plus a UTC ±24h window; a miss is not a same-story guess.",
    "Archive host rates are Common Crawl derived context, not a deletion census or a single censorship rate.",
    "Peer rows name GreatFire, OONI, CDT, or Weiboscope and the date of that peer's verdict. They are not Palimpsest capture and do not share Palimpsest's denominator."
  ],
  "method": "Deterministic assessment of one validated newswire event against its independent-source structure, the collector stories explicitly declared by that event, and only the live-family readings supplied to this builder (official-first-seen, public-deletion-ledgers, news-wire-live, undertext, and archive-news-context). Named-key interconnection peers from supplied peer-warehouse readings attach only on an exact host, URL path, extracted term, or ASN plus a UTC ±24h window from event.published_at. A peer without an exact key, a silent warehouse, or a warming_up warehouse is skipped. GreatFire, OONI, and CDT counts keep separate denominators and dates. Collector, live-family, and interconnection joins remain topic-surface-only: no article body is fetched, no generative model is used, and no current measurement is represented as article-specific verification, causation, or motive. The v2 brief copies retained metadata into a closed article shape with sentence-level citations. A missing surface abstains.",
  "brief": {
    "lead": {
      "status": "present",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "text": "APNIC Blog published the attributed source item at 2026-11-02T05:20:56Z.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "Evidence strength is single-source across 1 independent source group and 1 attributed source record.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "Palimpsest retained feed title, canonical link, publication time, and a bounded excerpt; it did not fetch the article body.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "No interconnection peer met an exact host, URL path, term, or ASN key inside the UTC ±24h window.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "timeline": {
      "status": "abstained",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "text": "official-first-seen is missing, so first-seen, last-alive, and hash-change points are omitted.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6690b9ad33cadc17144f"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "news-wire-live is missing, so that capture time is omitted.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-1182e0167ef19e7a7f6e"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "official_page": {
      "status": "none-reviewed",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "text": "No live official-first-seen reading was supplied to this analysis.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6690b9ad33cadc17144f"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "Official-page first-seen, last-alive, and hash values are withheld.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-6690b9ad33cadc17144f"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "Official-page corroboration coverage is none-reviewed: 0 accepted edges, 0 primary documents, 0 reviewed.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-c18ad9389e269dfa82f7"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "deletion_ledger": {
      "status": "abstained",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "text": "No public-deletion-ledger item matches this URL or a declared topic surface.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-a9def0f6ab556ad3f442"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "pipe_context": {
      "status": "present",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "text": "Declared pipe surface bleedthrough is live: A current controlled DNS-probe round is available for injector-tomography analysis. (injector response-process floor 2 over 210 injecting target IPs). This is aggregate context, not a claim that this article was blocked.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-d0d1a230c3ab0a432a04"
          ]
        },
        {
          "text": "Declared pipe surface inside-view is stale; its retained metric is not treated as current.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-5ea08ae81d804ce558ef"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "archive_context": {
      "status": "abstained",
      "sentences": [
        {
          "text": "No archive-news-context feature row matches this event id, URL, or declared topic surface.",
          "citation_ids": [
            "eventevidence-386bd4518405e8bccf04"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "surface_context": [
    {
      "surface_id": "corroboration",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "match_kind": null,
      "headline": "Primary-document corroboration coverage",
      "finding": "Official-page corroboration coverage is none-reviewed: 0 accepted edges, 0 primary documents, 0 reviewed.",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/corroboration-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": null,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "Human-reviewed primary-document coverage. official_page none-reviewed is a coverage fact, not a takedown claim."
    },
    {
      "surface_id": "official-first-seen",
      "status": "missing",
      "match_kind": null,
      "headline": "official-first-seen: withheld",
      "finding": "No live official-first-seen reading was supplied to this analysis.",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/official-first-seen-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": null,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "This layer abstains because the collector reading is not live here. No value was invented."
    },
    {
      "surface_id": "public-deletion-ledgers",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "match_kind": null,
      "headline": "public-deletion-ledgers: no join",
      "finding": "No public-deletion-ledger item matches this URL or a declared topic surface.",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/public-deletion-ledgers-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": null,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "The reading exists, but this event does not match it. The layer abstains."
    },
    {
      "surface_id": "news-wire-live",
      "status": "missing",
      "match_kind": null,
      "headline": "news-wire-live: withheld",
      "finding": "No live news-wire-live reading was supplied to this analysis.",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/news-wire-live-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": null,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "This layer abstains because the collector reading is not live here. No value was invented."
    },
    {
      "surface_id": "undertext",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "match_kind": null,
      "headline": "undertext: no join",
      "finding": "The undertext reading does not match this URL or a declared topic surface.",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/undertext-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": null,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "The reading exists, but this event does not match it. The layer abstains."
    },
    {
      "surface_id": "archive-news-context",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "match_kind": null,
      "headline": "archive-news-context: no join",
      "finding": "No archive-news-context feature row matches this event id, URL, or declared topic surface.",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/archive-news-context-latest.json",
      "input_sha256": null,
      "relation": "topic-surface-only",
      "interpretation": "The reading exists, but this event does not match it. The layer abstains."
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316",
      "kind": "event-source",
      "surface_id": "newswire",
      "status": "live",
      "headline": "APRICOT 2027 registration is now open, with discounts for APNIC Members",
      "claim": "APNIC Blog published “APRICOT 2027 registration is now open, with discounts for APNIC Members” at 2026-11-02T05:20:56Z.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/news/wire/event-d5557fefd8f78cf3a1c9386a/",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-11-02T05:20:56Z",
      "input_sha256": "cd58565f05ec89d7a211c5b4cb62dd62357d37238e903270638a7ecfb74f68c2",
      "interpretation_limit": "Feed title, canonical link, publication time, and a bounded excerpt only."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-c18ad9389e269dfa82f7",
      "kind": "corroboration",
      "surface_id": "corroboration",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "headline": "Primary-document corroboration coverage",
      "claim": "Official-page corroboration coverage is none-reviewed: 0 accepted edges, 0 primary documents, 0 reviewed.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/corroboration-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "input_sha256": null,
      "interpretation_limit": "Coverage fact only. Empty review is not a deletion or official-movement finding."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-d0d1a230c3ab0a432a04",
      "kind": "newsroom-collector",
      "surface_id": "bleedthrough",
      "status": "live",
      "headline": "Controlled external probes publish a current injector-tomography round",
      "claim": "A current controlled DNS-probe round is available for injector-tomography analysis.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/bleedthrough-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-11-02T06:57:28Z",
      "input_sha256": "380deccf9dd2ae4a010ec020041850f394a014db780a2342fad30763f365a900",
      "interpretation_limit": "Current aggregate collector reading. It is relevant context only; the wire declares no timed, claim-specific verification join."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-e460ce4f426ad7197759",
      "kind": "newsroom-collector",
      "surface_id": "in-path-interference",
      "status": "live",
      "headline": "Middlebox signatures register at 1.09% in the current OONI window",
      "claim": "The current measurement-weighted middlebox index is 1.09%.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/in-path-interference-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-11-02T07:13:26Z",
      "input_sha256": "f2f836fcddf1b02016f3d5e72be63f16e3e696fb5773747280cc1a79f4758dd9",
      "interpretation_limit": "Current aggregate collector reading. It is relevant context only; the wire declares no timed, claim-specific verification join."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-5ea08ae81d804ce558ef",
      "kind": "newsroom-collector",
      "surface_id": "inside-view",
      "status": "stale",
      "headline": "Inside-China view: no current finding",
      "claim": "No current finding is published for Inside-China view because the source status is stale.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/inside-view-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": "2026-08-11T07:49:24Z",
      "input_sha256": "e49626eb47a5d66135cf33e0831c8af64a930c3133b6a606f875bae2de529ce0",
      "interpretation_limit": "Collector status is stale; retained values are not treated as a current finding."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-6690b9ad33cadc17144f",
      "kind": "surface-missing",
      "surface_id": "official-first-seen",
      "status": "missing",
      "headline": "official-first-seen: reading absent",
      "claim": "No live official-first-seen reading was supplied to this analysis.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/official-first-seen-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "input_sha256": null,
      "interpretation_limit": "Absence is a coverage gap, not a zero finding."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-a9def0f6ab556ad3f442",
      "kind": "surface-unmatched",
      "surface_id": "public-deletion-ledgers",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "headline": "public-deletion-ledgers: no join",
      "claim": "No public-deletion-ledger item matches this URL or a declared topic surface.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/public-deletion-ledgers-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "input_sha256": null,
      "interpretation_limit": "A live reading without an exact URL or declared-topic join is not attached."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-1182e0167ef19e7a7f6e",
      "kind": "surface-missing",
      "surface_id": "news-wire-live",
      "status": "missing",
      "headline": "news-wire-live: reading absent",
      "claim": "No live news-wire-live reading was supplied to this analysis.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/news-wire-live-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "input_sha256": null,
      "interpretation_limit": "Absence is a coverage gap, not a zero finding."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-ebe567f7d92057453565",
      "kind": "surface-unmatched",
      "surface_id": "undertext",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "headline": "undertext: no join",
      "claim": "The undertext reading does not match this URL or a declared topic surface.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/undertext-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "input_sha256": null,
      "interpretation_limit": "A live reading without an exact URL or declared-topic join is not attached."
    },
    {
      "evidence_id": "eventevidence-386bd4518405e8bccf04",
      "kind": "surface-unmatched",
      "surface_id": "archive-news-context",
      "status": "unmatched",
      "headline": "archive-news-context: no join",
      "claim": "No archive-news-context feature row matches this event id, URL, or declared topic surface.",
      "reading_url": "https://palimpsest.info/readings/archive-news-context-latest.json",
      "source_timestamp": null,
      "input_sha256": null,
      "interpretation_limit": "A live reading without an exact URL or declared-topic join is not attached."
    }
  ],
  "counterreadings": [
    {
      "text": "A ledger hit can reflect the ledger's own selection rules rather than a deletion of this URL.",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-a9def0f6ab556ad3f442"
      ]
    },
    {
      "text": "A hash change or disappearance on an official page can reflect a routine update, a fetch failure, or a removal; the trail does not choose among those.",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6690b9ad33cadc17144f"
      ]
    },
    {
      "text": "A current pipe or undertext value can post-date the article and cannot establish that this article was blocked.",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-ebe567f7d92057453565",
        "eventevidence-d0d1a230c3ab0a432a04",
        "eventevidence-5ea08ae81d804ce558ef"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "unknowns": [
    {
      "text": "Palimpsest does not know why any page, hash, or ledger item changed.",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6690b9ad33cadc17144f",
        "eventevidence-a9def0f6ab556ad3f442"
      ]
    },
    {
      "text": "Palimpsest did not read the article body and does not verify the publisher's claims.",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
      ]
    },
    {
      "text": "Person-level attribution and claims about why an actor acted are outside this brief.",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "key_numbers": [
    {
      "value": "1",
      "label": "independent source groups",
      "note": "publication structure, not a truth score",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
      ]
    },
    {
      "value": "1",
      "label": "attributed source records",
      "note": "feed metadata only",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
      ]
    },
    {
      "value": "0",
      "label": "live attached surfaces",
      "note": "URL or declared-topic joins only",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
      ]
    },
    {
      "value": "71",
      "label": "same-window events sharing a topic",
      "note": "counts and names only; not verification",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-6162a4530530c5232316"
      ]
    },
    {
      "value": "0",
      "label": "reviewed corroboration edges",
      "note": "official_page none-reviewed",
      "citation_ids": [
        "eventevidence-c18ad9389e269dfa82f7"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "publication_receipt": {
    "status": "passed",
    "publishable": true,
    "automatic_publication": false,
    "citation_coverage": 1.0,
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