{
 "analysis_ready": false,
 "analysis_status": "abstain",
 "asof": "2026-08",
 "band_high": null,
 "band_low": null,
 "collector_status": "partial_observation",
 "components": {
  "electricity_yoy": -0.8,
  "loans_yoy": 4.9
 },
 "components_missing": [
  "rail_freight_yoy"
 ],
 "drift": null,
 "expected_gap": null,
 "flags": [],
 "gap": null,
 "generated_at": "2026-09-30T21:16:06Z",
 "headline_yoy": 5.2,
 "label": "abstain",
 "lkq_composite": null,
 "loans_basis": "rmb_balance",
 "method_note": "the Li Keqiang composite (40% loan growth, 40% electricity, 20% rail freight, using the canonical weights) against the state's own headline industrial-production YoY for the same month. The statistic is DRIFT: this month's headline-minus-composite gap against the gap's own rolling median and MAD band, so a services-heavy economy's persistent gap reads as baseline and only a break in the established relationship registers. Electricity is PRODUCTION (the keyless state series), not the original's consumption; this is a stated substitution. A missing component abstains the composite rather than reweighting it; fewer than 8 months of history publishes the gap but claims no drift (warming_up). Full method, origin, critiques and counterpoint: docs/BELIEVABILITY.md. A reading outside the band is evidence the relationship moved; it does not, by itself, establish fabrication",
 "method_version": 2,
 "n_components_present": 2,
 "n_components_required": 3,
 "n_history": 1,
 "n_history_required": 8,
 "note": "physical telemetry is hard to fake because someone pays for the electricity; this read compares the state to the state",
 "outside_band": null,
 "source": "the state's own releases, keyless: NBS English press releases (Energy Production; Industrial Production Operation), PBC monthly financial statistics report (outstanding RMB loan YoY), NRA monthly rail freight news",
 "status": "abstain",
 "telemetry": {
  "coal_yoy": -7.7,
  "steel_yoy": -3.7
 }
}