{
  "schema_version": "palimpsest-weekly-situation.v1",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:36.550632+00:00",
  "template": {
    "id": "weekly-situation-v1",
    "version": 1,
    "ranking_rule": "DDTI threat descending; GDELT, Weibo and GitHub annotate; they never rerank",
    "model_policy": "no model drafts the report or decides sensitivity; frozen templates only",
    "sections": [
      "headline",
      "working_hardest",
      "layer_state",
      "social_differential",
      "campaigns",
      "forecast_skill",
      "abstentions",
      "limitations"
    ],
    "sha256": "bf82970c09174fbae87e6067472d58c9a7d3f7d352456c4cb5af9e9420a39e2b"
  },
  "headline": "196 DDTI terms from 78 CDT observations. 9 of 9 fused layers present. 1 layer(s) elevated (content). GFI 22.0 (interval 9.3 to 43.7).",
  "working_hardest": [
    {
      "term": "punishment",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.7666,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.6667,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "Culture & the Arts",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.7217,
      "attention": 0.3886,
      "novelty": 0.5714,
      "is_new": false,
      "gdelt_label": "containment",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "Great Firewall",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.7188,
      "attention": 0.3834,
      "novelty": 0.5833,
      "is_new": false,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "VPNs",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.7028,
      "attention": 0.3834,
      "novelty": 0.5556,
      "is_new": false,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "academics",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.7027,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5556,
      "is_new": false,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "Harbin",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "Informed on",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "ethics",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "informants",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "morality",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "research",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    },
    {
      "term": "social decay",
      "domain": "OTHER",
      "threat": 0.6707,
      "attention": 0.3833,
      "novelty": 0.5,
      "is_new": true,
      "gdelt_label": "unknown",
      "weibo_regime": null,
      "layers": [
        "content",
        "global-news"
      ],
      "n_layers": 2,
      "sample_url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/"
    }
  ],
  "layer_state": {
    "content": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "ddti",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:02:30.420016+00:00",
      "sha256": "2d95b11af156a94a8750d4250896636a948148af6d64f7029b4c4c4b2684ae12"
    },
    "social": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "weibo",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:02:47Z",
      "sha256": "a4d57b69d8e270875b831435dbc9ae697322c0418e939a116c5af533342a4eac"
    },
    "global-news": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "gdelt",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T22:06:27.700758+00:00",
      "sha256": "9f992c86081a05c5b01c3130cdb9c5df53cc280d7a6bc5c1715094eb1b7165e7"
    },
    "platform": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "github_refuge",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T14:02:58.246895+00:00",
      "sha256": "e4d40a653b0bdebfd5de8ded7eb0ac83165cd30ebe1aee7ef65a528fabc58790"
    },
    "network-board": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "board_alarm",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:35.667575+00:00",
      "sha256": "9d71ecae2afb995f8f0e8886de7a4ecbc9c64179b02c40d48c5f8c3dbe5553cf"
    },
    "model": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "gfi",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T08:26:54.274808+00:00",
      "sha256": "b50674d5509d901fc8bbf1a0b18930d7ed5f98b04b0feb8e677374ba6dd19485"
    },
    "forecast": {
      "status": "ok",
      "source": "forecast_ledger",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:35.948488+00:00",
      "sha256": "07c624a879a6d0447f62fb3b256f59751b4d1b0b45a7f16c6f5e08ca77ab2205"
    }
  },
  "social_differential": {
    "contained_visible": 0,
    "suppressed_invisible": 0,
    "window_days": [
      "2026-10-11",
      "2026-10-12",
      "2026-10-13",
      "2026-10-14",
      "2026-10-15",
      "2026-10-16",
      "2026-10-17",
      "2026-10-18"
    ],
    "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:02:47Z",
    "note": "contained_visible: DDTI term still trends. suppressed_invisible: DDTI term never appears on the public hot-search board."
  },
  "campaigns": {
    "n_campaigns": 20,
    "campaigns": [
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/gyirong-controlling-speech/",
        "title": "Netizen Voices, on Gyirong Floods: “Controlling Speech is One Area Where ‘China Speed’ is Actually Real.”",
        "n_terms": 25,
        "terms": [
          "Environment",
          "Internet censorship",
          "Netizen Voices",
          "Tibet",
          "Tibet coverage",
          "Tibetans",
          "border",
          "cyber police",
          "death toll",
          "disaster relief",
          "emergency response",
          "floods",
          "glaciers",
          "information control",
          "manipulation of public opinion",
          "media censorship",
          "natural disasters",
          "nepal",
          "online censorship",
          "online public opinion",
          "punishment",
          "reporting",
          "rumors",
          "social media censorship",
          "state media"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7666
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/twenty-harbin-students-disciplined-for-unauthorized-vpn-use-after-reportedly-being-informed-on-by-classmate/",
        "title": "Twenty Harbin Students Disciplined for Unauthorized VPN Use After Reportedly Being “Informed on” by Classmate",
        "n_terms": 23,
        "terms": [
          "Academia",
          "CDT translation",
          "Culture & the Arts",
          "Great Firewall",
          "Harbin",
          "Informed on",
          "Internet access",
          "Internet censorship",
          "VPNs",
          "academics",
          "competition",
          "ethics",
          "informants",
          "morality",
          "online censorship",
          "online public opinion",
          "punishment",
          "research",
          "social decay",
          "social media censorship",
          "translation excerpt",
          "universities",
          "university students"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7666
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/10/cdts-404-deleted-content-archive-summary-for-august-2026/",
        "title": "CDT’s “404 Deleted Content Archive” Summary for August 2026",
        "n_terms": 48,
        "terms": [
          "404",
          "404 Deleted Content Archive",
          "Censorship Vault",
          "Culture & the Arts",
          "Douyin",
          "Hangzhou",
          "Himalayas",
          "Internet censorship",
          "Qianmen",
          "Residential Surveillance at a Designated Location (RSDL)",
          "Tiananmen Square",
          "Tibet",
          "WeChat",
          "Weibo",
          "Young people",
          "Zhu Rongji",
          "animation",
          "arts censorship",
          "banquets",
          "blockbuster films",
          "border",
          "cadres",
          "climate change",
          "comedy",
          "death toll",
          "environment",
          "film industry",
          "floods",
          "food safety",
          "huawei",
          "humor",
          "labor activism",
          "laid-off workers",
          "memes",
          "movies",
          "nepal",
          "online censorship",
          "public relations",
          "public security",
          "real estate",
          "satire",
          "sexual assault",
          "social media censorship",
          "tourism",
          "translation excerpt",
          "women",
          "women workers",
          "wuhan"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7217
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/minitrue-bytedance-censors-list-of-5241-sensitive-terms/",
        "title": "MiniTrue: ByteDance Censors’ List of 5,241 Sensitive Terms",
        "n_terms": 31,
        "terms": [
          "ByteDance",
          "CCP history",
          "CDT translation",
          "Culture & the Arts",
          "Directives from the Ministry of Truth",
          "Great Firewall",
          "Internet censorship",
          "Internet control",
          "PRC history",
          "Tiananmen massacre",
          "Tibet",
          "VPNs",
          "Xi Jinping",
          "Xinjiang",
          "anniversaries",
          "blocked keywords",
          "bloggers",
          "bytedance",
          "ccp leadership",
          "censorship mechanisms",
          "censorship methods",
          "content filtering",
          "dates",
          "dissidents",
          "information control",
          "leaked documents",
          "online censorship",
          "scandals",
          "sensitive words",
          "social media censorship",
          "vloggers"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7217
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/chinas-online-environment-gets-colder-and-darker/",
        "title": "China’s Online Environment Gets Colder and Darker",
        "n_terms": 28,
        "terms": [
          "CCP",
          "Culture & the Arts",
          "Great Firewall",
          "Internet censorship",
          "Internet control",
          "Internet dissent",
          "Tibet",
          "artificial intelligence",
          "arts censorship",
          "censorship mechanisms",
          "communist party",
          "economic slowdown",
          "employment",
          "free expression",
          "freedom of expression",
          "information control",
          "natural disasters",
          "netizens",
          "online censorship",
          "online platforms",
          "online public opinion",
          "positive energy",
          "property market",
          "self-censorship",
          "social media censorship",
          "social stability",
          "suppression of dissent",
          "unemployment"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7217
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/journalist-and-metoo-activist-sophia-huang-xueqin-released-from-prison-after-five-years/",
        "title": "Journalist and #MeToo Activist Sophia Huang Xueqin Released From Prison After Five Years",
        "n_terms": 24,
        "terms": [
          "#MeToo",
          "Committee to Protect Journalists",
          "Culture & the Arts",
          "Huang Xueqin",
          "Human Rights",
          "Wang Jianbing",
          "activists",
          "citizen journalism",
          "female reporters",
          "feminism",
          "human rights",
          "inciting subversion of state power",
          "investigative journalism",
          "journalism",
          "media censorship",
          "open letters",
          "press freedom",
          "prison",
          "reporting",
          "rights defense",
          "suppression of dissent",
          "surveillance",
          "trials",
          "women"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7217
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/wuhan-authorities-punish-theatre-and-event-organizers-after-comedian-guo-degang-riffs-on-red-tune-without-prior-approval/",
        "title": "Wuhan Authorities Punish Theatre and Event Organizers After Comedian Guo Degang Riffs on “Red Tune” Without Prior Approval",
        "n_terms": 17,
        "terms": [
          "CCP history",
          "Chinese opera",
          "Cross-Talk Comics",
          "Culture & the Arts",
          "PRC history",
          "Red Tune",
          "arts censorship",
          "comedy",
          "cross-talk",
          "cultural policy",
          "free expression",
          "freedom of expression",
          "humor",
          "party history",
          "revolutionary films",
          "translation excerpt",
          "wuhan"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7217
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/cdts-404-deleted-content-archive-summary-for-july-2026/",
        "title": "CDT’s “404 Deleted Content Archive” Summary for July 2026",
        "n_terms": 37,
        "terms": [
          "404",
          "404 Deleted Content Archive",
          "CCTV",
          "Censorship Vault",
          "Changsha",
          "Douyin",
          "Guangxi",
          "Henan",
          "Internet censorship",
          "Peking University",
          "Shandong",
          "Taiwan",
          "Viral Content",
          "WeChat",
          "Weibo",
          "Zhejiang",
          "Zhengzhou",
          "academics",
          "agriculture policy",
          "cadres",
          "death toll",
          "farmers",
          "floods",
          "food safety",
          "mathematics",
          "media conditions",
          "media control",
          "media controls",
          "natural disasters",
          "online censorship",
          "online public opinion",
          "privilege",
          "rainfall",
          "reporting",
          "reservoirs",
          "social media censorship",
          "translation excerpt"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.7027
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/translation-eventually-we-all-learned-to-keep-quiet/",
        "title": "Translation: “Eventually, We All Learned to Keep Quiet”",
        "n_terms": 18,
        "terms": [
          "CDT translation",
          "Eventually, We All Learned to Keep Quiet",
          "Guangzhou",
          "Internet censorship",
          "arrests",
          "crime",
          "harmony",
          "information control",
          "knife attacks",
          "online censorship",
          "police",
          "public safety",
          "reporting",
          "safety concerns",
          "self-censorship",
          "social media censorship",
          "violence",
          "women"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.5264
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/translation-censored-commentary-on-beijings-drone-storage-ban/",
        "title": "Translation: Censored Commentary on Beijing’s Drone Storage Ban",
        "n_terms": 16,
        "terms": [
          "Beijing",
          "Internet censorship",
          "WeChat",
          "Yangtze River",
          "air control",
          "air traffic",
          "aviation",
          "censorship",
          "drones",
          "environment",
          "fishing",
          "online censorship",
          "pollution",
          "regulations",
          "social media censorship",
          "wuhan"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.5264
      },
      {
        "url": "https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2026/09/minitrue-find-delete-and-block-chai-jing-video-on-cultural-revolution-leader/",
        "title": "Minitrue: Find, Delete, and Block Chai Jing Video on Cultural Revolution Leader",
        "n_terms": 11,
        "terms": [
          "CCP history",
          "Chai Jing",
          "Cultural Revolution",
          "Directives from the Ministry of Truth",
          "Internet video",
          "Mao Zedong",
          "censorship",
          "gang of four",
          "history",
          "online censorship",
          "party history"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.5264
      },
      {
        "url": "https://cyberscoop.com/volexity-uta0565-china-exploit-chain-chrome-microsoft/#new_tab",
        "title": "CyberScoop – Volexity spots another China-aligned threat group exploiting Chrome and Microsoft defects",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://freedomhouse.org/article/ccp-trying-and-failing-extinguish-defiance-among-chinese-citizens#new_tab",
        "title": "Freedom House – The CCP is Trying—and Failing—to Extinguish Defiance among Chinese Citizens",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://news.hrichina.org/p/hric-digital-rights-report-august#new_tab",
        "title": "HRIC – HRIC Digital Rights Report – August 2026",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://safeguarddefenders.com/en/publications/cgtn-see-difference-chinas-party-state-media-focus#new_tab",
        "title": "Safeguard Defenders – CGTN: See the Difference. China’s Party-State Media in Focus",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/guangxis-deadly-floods-and-chinas-propaganda-crisis.html#new_tab",
        "title": "The Irrawaddy – Guangxi’s Deadly Floods and China’s Propaganda Crisis",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/with-national-holidays-approaching-chinese-workers-demand-proper-break-2026-09-29/#new_tab",
        "title": "Reuters – With national holidays approaching, Chinese workers demand a proper break",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www.visiontimes.com/2026/09/30/former-chinese-journalist-accuses-jiangxi-investigators-of-torture-coercion.html#new_tab",
        "title": "Vision Times – Former Chinese Journalist Accuses Jiangxi Investigators of Torture, Coercion",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "WeChat"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0998
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/01/world/asia/china-tibet-floods-nepal-censorship.html#new_tab",
        "title": "NYT – Punishment and Silence: China Pulls Out the Disaster Playbook in Tibet",
        "n_terms": 3,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "Tibet",
          "censorship"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0952
      },
      {
        "url": "https://www.dw.com/en/how-china-buried-tibet-flood-images-after-nepal-disaster/a-78576472#new_tab",
        "title": "DW – How China buried Tibet flood images after Nepal disaster",
        "n_terms": 2,
        "terms": [
          "CDT in the news",
          "Tibet"
        ],
        "max_threat": 0.0952
      }
    ],
    "method": "exact CDT article URL; a campaign is an article that names two or more current DDTI terms. Title fuzzy-matching is refused."
  },
  "forecast_skill": {
    "headline": "10 signals scored over 3288 one-step forecasts; 82% of readings fell inside the 80% band (well calibrated); adaptive bands beat the fixed-quantile baseline on 3 of 10",
    "pooled_empirical_coverage": 0.825,
    "nominal_coverage": 0.8,
    "n_signals_scored": 10,
    "n_beating_baseline": 3,
    "n_forecasts": 3288,
    "signals": [
      {
        "signal": "censored_planet",
        "wis": 0.0181,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.765,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 51,
        "n_misses": 12
      },
      {
        "signal": "data_darkness",
        "wis": 0.0844,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.762,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 63,
        "n_misses": 15
      },
      {
        "signal": "ddti_threat",
        "wis": 0.1328,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.805,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 665,
        "n_misses": 130
      },
      {
        "signal": "github_refuge",
        "wis": 0.4495,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.841,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 207,
        "n_misses": 33
      },
      {
        "signal": "ddti_novelty",
        "wis": 0.5444,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.919,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 665,
        "n_misses": 54
      },
      {
        "signal": "bleedthrough_capacity",
        "wis": 0.7108,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.769,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 13,
        "n_misses": 3
      },
      {
        "signal": "ooni_gfw",
        "wis": 0.9193,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.795,
        "beats_baseline": true,
        "n_forecasts": 731,
        "n_misses": 150
      },
      {
        "signal": "refusal_drift",
        "wis": 1.1412,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.786,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 70,
        "n_misses": 15
      },
      {
        "signal": "gdelt_containment",
        "wis": 1.1727,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.805,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 369,
        "n_misses": 72
      },
      {
        "signal": "tor_bridge_cn",
        "wis": 57.0074,
        "empirical_coverage": 0.795,
        "beats_baseline": false,
        "n_forecasts": 454,
        "n_misses": 93
      }
    ]
  },
  "n_layers_present": 9,
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "inputs": {
    "ddti": {
      "source": "ddti",
      "path": "ddti-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "2d95b11af156a94a8750d4250896636a948148af6d64f7029b4c4c4b2684ae12",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:02:30.420016+00:00"
    },
    "gdelt": {
      "source": "gdelt",
      "path": "gdelt-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "9f992c86081a05c5b01c3130cdb9c5df53cc280d7a6bc5c1715094eb1b7165e7",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T22:06:27.700758+00:00"
    },
    "weibo": {
      "source": "weibo",
      "path": "weibo-hotsearch-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "a4d57b69d8e270875b831435dbc9ae697322c0418e939a116c5af533342a4eac",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:02:47Z"
    },
    "github_refuge": {
      "source": "github_refuge",
      "path": "github-refuge-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "e4d40a653b0bdebfd5de8ded7eb0ac83165cd30ebe1aee7ef65a528fabc58790",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T14:02:58.246895+00:00"
    },
    "board_alarm": {
      "source": "board_alarm",
      "path": "board-alarm-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "9d71ecae2afb995f8f0e8886de7a4ecbc9c64179b02c40d48c5f8c3dbe5553cf",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:35.667575+00:00"
    },
    "coverage_guard": {
      "source": "coverage_guard",
      "path": "coverage-guard-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "8140aaac6cacae57e89392316a1035fec55a37552d1c818e4e3923be20821e2a",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:35.888900+00:00"
    },
    "forecast_ledger": {
      "source": "forecast_ledger",
      "path": "forecast-ledger-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "07c624a879a6d0447f62fb3b256f59751b4d1b0b45a7f16c6f5e08ca77ab2205",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:35.948488+00:00"
    },
    "cross_layer": {
      "source": "cross_layer",
      "path": "cross-layer-latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "b64a6476be4d349908e602828cb3483528ea0a034d4dbcb446e335298281c9d3",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-18T00:09:36.055570+00:00"
    },
    "gfi": {
      "source": "gfi",
      "path": "latest.json",
      "status": "ok",
      "sha256": "b50674d5509d901fc8bbf1a0b18930d7ed5f98b04b0feb8e677374ba6dd19485",
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T08:26:54.274808+00:00"
    }
  },
  "abstentions": [],
  "limitations": [
    "The ranking is censor attention allocation from China Digital Times, not a deletion rate.",
    "A missing layer is an abstention, never a zero and never calm.",
    "GDELT and Weibo joins are exact-term matches against the current DDTI list.",
    "The Generative Firewall Index is a named-panel refusal reading, not a motive claim.",
    "Cross-layer coincidence counts elevated layers; it does not identify a common cause.",
    "GitHub-as-Refuge reports pressure against persisted prior-presence baselines only."
  ],
  "method_version": 1,
  "seal": {
    "payload_sha256": "1ff8c06aa6c0df6a5012a6bb3b7b96cb2f412bf57d3189e18f6cbdfe443ebb53",
    "schema_version": "palimpsest-weekly-situation.v1",
    "template_id": "weekly-situation-v1"
  }
}