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China Observatory / Evidence desk

Read beneath the headline.

Compare the economic detail. Track what changes in the official record. Test the explanation against outside evidence.

China’s national figures tell part of the story. This desk opens the underlying industry, city and trade histories—and records what those sources can and cannot establish.

Questions the data can answer

Is production running ahead of orders?

The production diffusion index is 50.4; new orders are 50.6. Their spread is -0.2 index points.

A positive spread suggests different survey breadth for output and demand. Check inventories, export orders and realized sales before inferring unwanted production.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Are customers taking longer to pay?

The reported measure is 71.9 days. This is +2.1 days from the same month a year earlier.

Coverage is industrial enterprises above the designated size. Longer collection or turnover can motivate investigation; these aggregates do not identify defaults or concealment.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Is inventory taking longer to clear?

The reported measure is 21.3 days. This is +0.8 days from the same month a year earlier.

Coverage is industrial enterprises above the designated size. Longer collection or turnover can motivate investigation; these aggregates do not identify defaults or concealment.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

How persistent are new-home price declines?

34 of 70 cities with six consecutive monthly readings ending 2026-07 have price declines in all six months.

This measures the persistence of reported monthly falls. Missing months break the streak; the count does not measure national property losses or transactions.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

How persistent are resale-home price declines?

49 of 70 cities with six consecutive monthly readings ending 2026-07 have price declines in all six months.

This measures the persistence of reported monthly falls. Missing months break the streak; the count does not measure national property losses or transactions.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Europe's exports to China

EU27 exports to China were €18.76 billion in 2026-06, +11.3% from the same month a year earlier.

Nominal monthly goods trade reported by the EU; euro exchange rates, valuation and shipping lags can affect changes.

Original source · Inspect the evidence
Explore 19 more trade comparisons

Europe's imports from China

EU27 imports from China were €53.88 billion in 2026-06, +12.5% from the same month a year earlier.

Nominal monthly goods trade reported by the EU; euro exchange rates, valuation and shipping lags can affect changes.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Europe's exports to Myanmar

EU27 exports to Myanmar were €0.02 billion in 2026-06, -61.2% from the same month a year earlier.

Nominal monthly goods trade reported by the EU; euro exchange rates, valuation and shipping lags can affect changes.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Europe's imports from Myanmar

EU27 imports from Myanmar were €0.21 billion in 2026-06, +0.4% from the same month a year earlier.

Nominal monthly goods trade reported by the EU; euro exchange rates, valuation and shipping lags can affect changes.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Europe's exports to Pakistan

EU27 exports to Pakistan were €0.41 billion in 2026-06, +54.0% from the same month a year earlier.

Nominal monthly goods trade reported by the EU; euro exchange rates, valuation and shipping lags can affect changes.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Europe's imports from Pakistan

EU27 imports from Pakistan were €0.69 billion in 2026-06, +20.4% from the same month a year earlier.

Nominal monthly goods trade reported by the EU; euro exchange rates, valuation and shipping lags can affect changes.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

China: how broad is the trade change?

In 2026-06, 62 of 97 comparable HS2 chapters increased in euro value and 35 declined (eu imports from partner).

Each chapter counts equally; small chapters weigh as much as machinery. Missing and zero year-earlier denominators are excluded. This is not a firm survey.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

China: how broad is the trade change?

In 2026-06, 62 of 97 comparable HS2 chapters increased in euro value and 35 declined (eu exports to partner).

Each chapter counts equally; small chapters weigh as much as machinery. Missing and zero year-earlier denominators are excluded. This is not a firm survey.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Pakistan: how broad is the trade change?

In 2026-06, 51 of 84 comparable HS2 chapters increased in euro value and 33 declined (eu imports from partner).

Each chapter counts equally; small chapters weigh as much as machinery. Missing and zero year-earlier denominators are excluded. This is not a firm survey.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Pakistan: how broad is the trade change?

In 2026-06, 49 of 83 comparable HS2 chapters increased in euro value and 34 declined (eu exports to partner).

Each chapter counts equally; small chapters weigh as much as machinery. Missing and zero year-earlier denominators are excluded. This is not a firm survey.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Myanmar: how broad is the trade change?

In 2026-06, 23 of 52 comparable HS2 chapters increased in euro value and 29 declined (eu imports from partner).

Each chapter counts equally; small chapters weigh as much as machinery. Missing and zero year-earlier denominators are excluded. This is not a firm survey.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Myanmar: how broad is the trade change?

In 2026-06, 22 of 53 comparable HS2 chapters increased in euro value and 31 declined (eu exports to partner).

Each chapter counts equally; small chapters weigh as much as machinery. Missing and zero year-earlier denominators are excluded. This is not a firm survey.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 7601: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu exports to partner changed +137.7% in euro value and -50.6% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Unwrought aluminium.

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 8517: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu exports to partner changed -3.8% in euro value and +130.0% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Telephone sets, incl. telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks; other apparatus for the transmission or reception of voice, images or other data, incl. apparatus for communication in a wired or wireless network {such as a local or wide area network}; parts thereof (excl. than transmission or reception apparatus of heading 8443, 8525, 8527 or 8528).

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 3004: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu exports to partner changed +49.7% in euro value and -14.7% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Medicaments consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, put up in measured doses "incl. those for transdermal administration" or in forms or packings for retail sale (excl. goods of heading 3002, 3005 or 3006).

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 9013: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu imports from partner changed +21.0% in euro value and -33.0% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Liquid crystal devices not constituting articles provided for more specifically in other heading; lasers (excl. laser diodes); other optical appliances and instruments not elsewhere specified in chapter 90.

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 8507: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu exports to partner changed -10.3% in euro value and +25.9% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Electric accumulators, incl. separators therefor, whether or not square or rectangular; parts thereof (excl. spent and those of unhardened rubber or textiles).

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 8541: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu exports to partner changed -2.9% in euro value and +29.9% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Diodes, transistors and similar semiconductor devices; photosensitive semiconductor devices, incl. photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled in modules or made up into panels (excl. photovotaic generators); light emitting diodes "LED"; mounted piezoelectric crystals; parts thereof.

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 3818: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu exports to partner changed +1.6% in euro value and -30.2% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Chemical elements and compounds doped for use in electronics, in the form of discs, wafers, cylinders, rods or similar forms, or cut into discs, wafers or similar forms, whether or not polished or with a uniform epitaxial coating (excl. elements that have been further processed, e.g. by selective diffusion).

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

HS 8542: value and weight move in opposite directions

In 2026-06, eu imports from partner changed +20.1% in euro value and -11.0% in net mass from a year earlier. Product: Electronic integrated circuits; parts thereof.

A lead for investigation: price, quality, product mix, exchange rates and classification changes can explain divergence. It is not evidence of falsification.

Original source · Inspect the evidence

Follow the detail over time

Each chart uses explicit source periods and the latest retained vintage. A repeated publication of a month counts once. Full table cells remain available in the archive.

Choose a measure to load its history. The full history is also available as JSON.

Observed same-URL numeric revision pairs: 0. A zero means none in the captured comparisons; it does not prove the historical record never changed.

Open current source tables and industry comparisons · Download every retained source-table vintage

Housing: breadth and persistence

Monthly price indexes use previous month = 100. Streaks stop at a missing month. They describe observed prices, not the value of losses or sales.

CityMarketLatest monthPrice indexConsecutive observed declinesCaptured months
Anqingnew2026-0799.2813
Baotounew2026-0799.81313
Beihainew2026-0799.41313
Beijingnew2026-0799.7413
Bengbunew2026-0799.71313
Changchunnew2026-07100.2013
Changdenew2026-0799.91213
Changshanew2026-0799.91313
Chengdunew2026-0799.91313
Chongqingnew2026-07100.1013
Dalinew2026-0799.7113
Daliannew2026-07100.1013
Dandongnew2026-0799.8713
Fuzhounew2026-0799.71113
Ganzhounew2026-0799.81313
Guangzhounew2026-07100.1013
Guilinnew2026-0799.51313
Guiyangnew2026-0799.8813
Haikounew2026-0799.4313
Hangzhounew2026-07100.3013
Harbinnew2026-0799.6513
Hefeinew2026-0799.8213
Hohhotnew2026-0799.91313
Huizhounew2026-07100.0013
Jilinnew2026-0799.8313
Jinannew2026-0799.71313
Jinhuanew2026-0799.91313
Jiningnew2026-07100.1013
Jinzhounew2026-0799.71313
Jiujiangnew2026-0799.51313
Kunmingnew2026-0799.81313
Lanzhounew2026-0799.81313
Luoyangnew2026-0799.51313
Luzhounew2026-0799.21313
Mudanjiangnew2026-0799.8413
Nanchangnew2026-0799.71313
Nanchongnew2026-0799.9513
Nanjingnew2026-07100.1013
Nanningnew2026-07100.1013
Ningbonew2026-07100.1013
Pingdingshannew2026-0799.71113
Qingdaonew2026-07100.1013
Qinhuangdaonew2026-0799.61313
Quanzhounew2026-0799.61313
Sanyanew2026-07100.0013
Shanghainew2026-07100.2013
Shaoguannew2026-0799.6713
Shenyangnew2026-07100.0013
Shenzhennew2026-07100.2013
Shijiazhuangnew2026-0799.81313
Taiyuannew2026-0799.9113
Tangshannew2026-0799.61313
Tianjinnew2026-07100.0013
Urumqinew2026-0799.8113
Wenzhounew2026-0799.9413
Wuhannew2026-07100.1013
Wuxinew2026-07100.1013
Xiamennew2026-07100.0013
Xiangyangnew2026-0799.5313
Xiningnew2026-0799.51113
Xi’annew2026-0799.51313
Xuzhounew2026-0799.8113
Yangzhounew2026-07100.2013
Yantainew2026-07100.1013
Yichangnew2026-07100.1013
Yinchuannew2026-07100.0013
Yueyangnew2026-0799.61313
Zhanjiangnew2026-0799.51313
Zhengzhounew2026-0799.81313
Zunyinew2026-0799.61313
Anqingresale2026-0799.61313
Baotouresale2026-0799.51313
Beihairesale2026-0799.51313
Beijingresale2026-07100.0013
Bengburesale2026-0799.71313
Changchunresale2026-0799.71113
Changderesale2026-0799.51313
Changsharesale2026-0799.91313
Chengduresale2026-0799.71313
Chongqingresale2026-0799.8113
Daliresale2026-0799.51313
Dalianresale2026-0799.8213
Dandongresale2026-0799.71313
Fuzhouresale2026-0799.81313
Ganzhouresale2026-0799.61313
Guangzhouresale2026-07100.4013
Guilinresale2026-0799.81313
Guiyangresale2026-0799.61313
Haikouresale2026-0799.1313
Hangzhouresale2026-0799.9213
Harbinresale2026-0799.51313
Hefeiresale2026-0799.8113
Hohhotresale2026-0799.71313
Huizhouresale2026-0799.71313
Jilinresale2026-0799.91313
Jinanresale2026-0799.4413
Jinhuaresale2026-0799.81313
Jiningresale2026-0799.81313
Jinzhouresale2026-0799.7413
Jiujiangresale2026-0799.81313
Kunmingresale2026-0799.41313
Lanzhouresale2026-0799.81313
Luoyangresale2026-0799.41313
Luzhouresale2026-0799.31313
Mudanjiangresale2026-0799.91313
Nanchangresale2026-0799.91313
Nanchongresale2026-0799.81313
Nanjingresale2026-0799.7313
Nanningresale2026-0799.91313
Ningboresale2026-07100.0013
Pingdingshanresale2026-0799.51313
Qingdaoresale2026-0799.4413
Qinhuangdaoresale2026-0799.41313
Quanzhouresale2026-0799.51313
Sanyaresale2026-0799.61313
Shanghairesale2026-07100.3013
Shaoguanresale2026-0799.51313
Shenyangresale2026-07100.1013
Shenzhenresale2026-07100.2013
Shijiazhuangresale2026-0799.71313
Taiyuanresale2026-0799.61213
Tangshanresale2026-0799.51313
Tianjinresale2026-0799.81313
Urumqiresale2026-0799.91313
Wenzhouresale2026-0799.71313
Wuhanresale2026-07100.0013
Wuxiresale2026-0799.8113
Xiamenresale2026-0799.7213
Xiangyangresale2026-0799.41313
Xiningresale2026-0799.71213
Xi’anresale2026-0799.6313
Xuzhouresale2026-07100.2013
Yangzhouresale2026-0799.6613
Yantairesale2026-0799.81313
Yichangresale2026-0799.81313
Yinchuanresale2026-0799.71313
Yueyangresale2026-0799.81313
Zhanjiangresale2026-0799.4613
Zhengzhouresale2026-0799.7213
Zunyiresale2026-0799.71313

When the official record changes

These cases cite historical official announcements. The live watch starts from its own captured baseline and keeps later document changes separate from those historical accounts.

The youth unemployment series changed its population definition

NBS announced an age-group unemployment publication suspension in August 2023. In January 2024 it announced age-group rates excluding students and a new 25–29 age group.

Comparisons across the break need a consistent population definition. A lower rate after the change does not by itself measure an improvement among the same people. NBS attributed the change to refining its labor-force statistics.

Evidence capture: captured

Official record 1 · Official record 2

GDP revisions combine census evidence and a housing-services method change

NBS revised the preliminary 2023 GDP estimate using the fifth economic census and a simultaneous change to the valuation of owner-occupied urban housing services.

Separate the census revision from the accounting-method effect when comparing output vintages. This is a documented statistical revision; it is not itself evidence that output was fabricated.

Evidence capture: captured

Official record 1 · Official record 2

Unemployment rates leave job quality and inactive workers outside their headline

NBS explains that survey unemployment concerns the labor force and that people neither searching nor available for work are outside that denominator. Its methodology distinguishes unemployment from hours and employment quality.

Read unemployment alongside hours, earnings, participation and working-age population. A stable headline alone cannot settle whether work is becoming more secure or better paid.

Evidence capture: captured

Official record 1 · Official record 2
Inspect 36 watched documents

Access limits and transport failures do not establish removal. An observed removal requires a previous successful capture and repeated 404/410 responses.

DocumentAvailabilityObserved eventLast successful checkText fingerprint
Purchasing Managers’ Index for August 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:21Zc9361c975eb5
Profits of Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size from January to July in 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:21Z8f26d75c80f7
Industrial Production Operation in July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:21Z51d1d9164562
Investment in Fixed Assets from January to July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:21Z6dd1fbf65fe5
Investment in Real Estate Development from January to July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:22Z7dfa03d1a3aa
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods from January to July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:22Z1315297f8578
Sales Prices of Commercial Residential Buildings in 70 Medium and Large-sized Cities in July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:23Z88a69e213e3b
Consumer Price Index in July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:23Zec3686ef61af
Industrial Producer Price Indexes in July 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:23Z43d07f13c27e
Market Prices of Important Means of Production in Circulation, August 21-31, 2026National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:23Zb771e22bb8c7
Age-group unemployment publication suspension, August 2023National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:24Zbb376cd55043
Age-group unemployment definition change, January 2024National Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:24Z06c07bdbec59
Survey unemployment calculation and labor-force denominatorNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:24Zac2f63ee292f
What survey unemployment measures and does not measureNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:25Z7c458a84d066
2023 GDP revision announcement following the fifth economic censusNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:25Z48f5553e5b41
NBS explanation of 2023 GDP census and housing-services revisionsNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:25Zb0dc32d3b829
Fifth census results and forthcoming provincial GDP revisionsNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:26Z360622b7a48c
September 2023 unemployment publication-methodology follow-upNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:26Z4ed6394c2203
NBS Chinese latest statistical releasesNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:26Zed7e56b344af
NBS English latest statistical releasesNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:26Zc9339f6c1164
NBS statistical interpretation and methodologyNational Bureau of Statistics of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:27Zaada3ffc12ae
Ministry of Finance fiscal revenue, expenditure and financing releasesMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:29Za54aa5d38d20
Ministry of Finance budget department publication indexMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:29Zc0c079344172
Ministry of Finance public disclosure indexMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:29Z8d318886a91a
SAFE foreign-exchange statistics releasesState Administration of Foreign Exchangeavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:29Z3a12873b9026
Transport planning and statistical publicationsMinistry of Transport of Chinacontent_unverifiedunavailableNot captured
State Post Bureau postal statistics indexState Post Bureauaccess_limitedunavailableNot captured
Customs English foreign trade statistics indexGeneral Administration of Customstransport_errorunavailableNot captured
Environmental statistical annual reportsMinistry of Ecology and Environmentavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:31Ze42c342f2ce4
National Audit Office public announcementsNational Audit Office of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:47Zdff87e37262b
January–July 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditureMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:31Z19e37ccf55fb
First half 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditureMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:32Z72ccc37beedf
January–May 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditureMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:33Z6c9e11078fa3
January–April 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditureMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:33Z3176f811d2f2
First quarter 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditureMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:33Z50400d8694a0
January–February 2026 fiscal revenue and expenditureMinistry of Finance of Chinaavailableunchanged2026-09-08T23:03:33Z37c7f0d38770

The research library

Inside the official economic record

Source-table archive, comparable monthly business indicators and 70-city housing histories. Repeated months are deduplicated; source vintages remain inspectable.

partial · Checked 2026-09-08T23:02:29Z

Measured collection coverage
  • archive numeric cells: 38113
  • archive vintages: 114
  • comparable series: 28
  • city housing series: 140
  • deduplicated series months: 2496
  • observed revision pairs: 0
  • ambiguous series months: 0

Dataset and provenance · Download data

What Europe records about trade

EU declarations for China, Pakistan and Myanmar: monthly product values, weights, trading partners and reporter-country detail. EU totals and member countries overlap.

available · Checked 2026-09-08T16:19:55Z

Measured collection coverage
  • first reported period: 2010-01
  • independent source groups: 1
  • last reported period: 2026-06
  • numeric cells: 283994
  • partners: CN, MM, PK
  • products: 122
  • reporters: DE, ES, EU27_2020, FR, IT, NL, PL
  • rows: 166428
  • series: 828
  • unavailable cells: 48862

Dataset and provenance · Download data

What changed in the public record

Document-level baselines, content changes, index changes and repeat URL-absence checks. Network failures and access limits remain separate.

partial · Checked 2026-09-08T23:03:47Z

Measured collection coverage
  • available documents: 33
  • available source groups: 5
  • baseline documents: 0
  • captured characters: 167433
  • captured numeric tokens: 6561
  • changed documents: 0
  • removal observations: 0
  • retained captures: 168
  • retained documents: 33
  • retained source groups: 5
  • source groups: 8
  • unavailable documents: 3
  • updated indexes: 0
  • watched documents: 36

Dataset and provenance · Download data

Regional cross-border payments

SAFE workbooks are retained for private research with original hashes. Public output shows acquisition metadata; numeric tables and derived analysis require publication permission.

permission_required · Checked 2026-09-08T16:19:59Z

Measured collection coverage
  • independent source groups: 1
  • numeric observations private: 115047
  • public numeric observations: 0
  • sheets retained: 85
  • unavailable observations private: 50658
  • workbooks retained: 8

Dataset and provenance · Download metadata

Make the investigation falsifiable

A gap, revision or disagreement can generate a research question. Establishing concealment requires evidence of what was withheld or changed, by whom, and why.

Test the demand story

Compare production, domestic orders, export orders and EU-reported demand by product and month.

Check alternatives: Inventory rebuilding, seasonal patterns and goods sold outside Europe can explain divergence.

Test the cash-flow story

Follow receivable days, inventory turnover and margins; compare the same calendar period across years.

Check alternatives: Industry composition and changes in the above-size enterprise sample can move aggregate ratios.

Test the property story

Track consecutive city price falls alongside official construction, sales and investment tables.

Check alternatives: A price index does not measure transaction volume, developer liquidity or household equity losses.

Test a publication-change claim

Inspect the before/after capture receipts, official methodological explanations and repeated checks from the watch.

Check alternatives: Routine revisions, site migrations and index rotation are alternative explanations; intent needs additional evidence.

Connect the regional record

Use Pakistan and Myanmar mirror trade with CPEC, Balochistan, Gwadar and BRI reporting to identify questions for project documents.

Check alternatives: National trade does not identify a particular port, district, financing contract or illicit actor.