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Deterministic machine analysis · ABSTENTION REPORT

China's network filtering has no honest single rate

Multiple scoped instruments report observable network interference, while their incompatible panels, protocols and denominators rule out one national percentage.

Current gate result: Abstained because no live, rights-eligible network measurements remain to cite.

DETERMINISTIC MACHINE ANALYSIS · NO HUMAN INTERVIEW. This report uses checked-in aggregate evidence only. It cannot add testimony, observe private conduct or treat missing reporting as confirmation.

Report type
AbstentionReport
automated_evidence_analysis
Updated
Published
12 Aug 2026 · 16:51 UTC
Revision receipt
machinev-2ce5e38a7ffec550050589ac
Immutable revision JSON

Analysis with citations attached

The paragraph is the published unit; the ledger beneath it shows the exact evidence IDs attached to each sentence and the de-duplicated lineage union for the block.

Claim block 1 · network-denominators

Live rights-eligible network measurements were unavailable. Excluded: ooni-gfw (not-live), in-path-interference (not-live), censored-planet (not-live), and inside-view (not-live).

  1. Live rights-eligible network measurements were unavailable. Excluded: ooni-gfw (not-live), in-path-interference (not-live), censored-planet (not-live), and inside-view (not-live).

    Sentence 1 citations: No evidence receipt cited

Block evidence union: No evidence receipt cited
Independent lineage groups: none recorded

When the evidence arrived—and which sources travel together

Evidence chronology and source lineageOrdering exposes which observations predate the report and which receipts share a lineage. It is descriptive, not a causal sequence.

    Receipts, values, rights and interpretation limits

    Each public archive is a redacted aggregate capsule bound to the original input hash. Raw readings, IP-valued answers, contact data and person-level records are not copied into the archive.

    Evidence receipts cited sentence by sentence in this report
    RelationEvidence / lineageValue or summaryObservedInterpretation limit

    Countercases, limitations and falsifiers

    These records are part of the report, not caveats hidden after the conclusion.

    Countercases

    • A recorded interference indicator can arise from measurement conditions rather than a general filtering policy.
      countercase id
      countercase-measurement-artifact
      disposition
      Retained; without a live cited measurement the desk names the gap instead of inventing a rate.

    Limitations

    • The instruments observe different test populations with different denominators and units.
      consequence
      No weighted average or single national percentage is calculated.
      limitation id
      limitation-incompatible-denominators
    • Live rights-eligible network measurements were unavailable. Excluded: ooni-gfw (not-live), in-path-interference (not-live), censored-planet (not-live), and inside-view (not-live).
      consequence
      The desk publishes an abstention rather than a filtering rate.
      limitation id
      limitation-no-live-network-evidence

    Falsifiers

    • The observable-interference finding would weaken if independently operated China and control vantages converged within instrument error across repeated windows.
      falsifier id
      falsifier-control-convergence
      status
      not-triggered
    • A national-rate estimate would become testable only after a representative sampling frame and common outcome definition exist.
      falsifier id
      falsifier-common-denominator
      status
      evidence-needed

    Hypotheses tested

    • Network interference affecting China-facing tests is observable across independently produced measurement methods.
      disposition
      abstained
      falsifier ids
      ["falsifier-control-convergence"]
      hypothesis id
      hypothesis-observable-interference
    • The headline values estimate one common national filtering rate.
      disposition
      abstained
      falsifier ids
      ["falsifier-common-denominator"]
      hypothesis id
      hypothesis-single-national-rate

    Why this became AbstentionReport

    The report type is the result of declared deterministic checks. Passing a gate does not imply human reporting occurred.

    citation coverage
    1.0
    evaluated at
    2026-08-26T13:03:42Z
    failed gate ids
    ["independent-groups", "fresh-evidence"]
    independent group ids
    []
    minimum independent groups
    2
    observed independent groups
    0
    publishable
    no
    status
    failed
    Deterministic evaluation and publication-gate checks
    GateResultObserved / requiredReceipt detail
    Every analytical sentence has exact evidence IDssentence-citationsyes1 / 1The abstention names the missing live measurements without inventing citations.
    Every republished numeric value passes redistribution and reuse gatesnumeric-reuse-rightsyes0 / 0Live rights-eligible network measurements were unavailable. Excluded: ooni-gfw (not-live), in-path-interference (not-live), censored-planet (not-live), and inside-view (not-live).
    Independent evidence groups after lineage de-duplicationindependent-groupsno0 / 2No live rights-eligible network measurement remains to count.
    Cited measurements are current under declared source deadlinesfresh-evidenceno0 / 1Freshness comes from the validated evidence mesh, not the machine desk's wall clock.
    Countercases, limitations and falsifiers are explicitadversarial-reviewyes3 / 3The report includes all three adversarial-review surfaces.

    Methodology

    1. Hash the exact four public input files and validate their declared schemas.
      reproducible
      yes
      step id
      method-pin-inputs
    2. Resolve predeclared network values and denominators against JSON pointers in their exact raw artifact bytes.
      reproducible
      yes
      step id
      method-bind-evidence
    3. Republish and count only values whose mesh resource permits derived or full-text reuse with open or attribution-required redistribution.
      reproducible
      yes
      step id
      method-gate-rights
    4. Resolve independence groups through the evidence mesh before counting corroboration.
      reproducible
      yes
      step id
      method-deduplicate-lineage
    5. Require complete sentence citations, fresh evidence, independent groups and adversarial review.
      reproducible
      yes
      step id
      method-gate-publication

    Current head and preserved revisions

    The mutable report JSON points at the current case; this revision stays addressable even after a correction.

    Correction status
    none
    Last corrected
    No material correction recorded
    Policy
    A changed input receipt creates a new immutable revision; material errors are named in this history.
    1. Initial deterministic revision for this exact cited input set.
      Revision
      machinev-539389b2bf97e09ff5b287b4
      Change type
      initial-publication
      Published
      12 Aug 2026 · 16:51 UTC
    2. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-f22f305f307866121353565d
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      12 Aug 2026 · 19:56 UTC
    3. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-06d6d791c63f7ea229f7ef84
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      13 Aug 2026 · 05:52 UTC
    4. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-30c6872df9cd8528d793b36a
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      13 Aug 2026 · 08:12 UTC
    5. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-82e860199998691e31af4a5c
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      13 Aug 2026 · 14:16 UTC
    6. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-64f016a25eafdb288d0bf588
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      13 Aug 2026 · 19:46 UTC
    7. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-4922c7c9419e091569d6ceba
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      14 Aug 2026 · 03:57 UTC
    8. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-ce72808af0048937fc31b859
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      14 Aug 2026 · 10:39 UTC
    9. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-5cef31fa32eca8d7910626af
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      14 Aug 2026 · 14:03 UTC
    10. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-ba64b8b909dcc36622f0f2cb
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      14 Aug 2026 · 19:42 UTC
    11. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-8412c57fd4f37c224e42ca14
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 02:08 UTC
    12. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-8003dbc0bd6e678cdb23cb13
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 07:19 UTC
    13. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-9eb09629e25e643bd095a631
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 13:04 UTC
    14. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-44601e9340d4588f15e28f48
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 13:07 UTC
    15. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-8c8cc87127b481248eaf5c4d
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 13:23 UTC
    16. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-582cc95ef8d64d5c2c3f9fbd
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 18:52 UTC
    17. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-298ffd57bbecb7d27688e3dd
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 18:54 UTC
    18. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-35446fd21ec033ee8b41d12e
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      15 Aug 2026 · 19:15 UTC
    19. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-b28e6aa25c47f5612499076a
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 02:02 UTC
    20. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-81baf71220e567baf30e4592
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 02:05 UTC
    21. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-b4b943680eea4ceba65870b3
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 02:15 UTC
    22. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-946cdd79759fa7618249bd9d
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 07:19 UTC
    23. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-28b157779aeaa4371f691b72
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 13:07 UTC
    24. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-953d4773331b7a8f9faf1192
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 13:09 UTC
    25. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-0344e55baa57f0159fca4266
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 13:21 UTC
    26. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-0b8987ea3174dc6590a5dc22
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      16 Aug 2026 · 19:07 UTC
    27. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-aa53cf7212a1cd43c583cc06
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      17 Aug 2026 · 02:11 UTC
    28. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-ce515daffa912909c9ac6796
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      17 Aug 2026 · 07:47 UTC
    29. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-b98fea7f9e5a5a3acf23dafa
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      18 Aug 2026 · 11:54 UTC
    30. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-3285ef34c3a1ba3de8223950
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      19 Aug 2026 · 07:32 UTC
    31. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-311dc403f9323c1522445054
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      20 Aug 2026 · 03:58 UTC
    32. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-42199ebaa27f319f743616a8
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      20 Aug 2026 · 07:34 UTC
    33. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-bf3887f602c2c2376f486699
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      20 Aug 2026 · 14:52 UTC
    34. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-21011a599b2ad49c5c795c80
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      22 Aug 2026 · 02:07 UTC
    35. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-9e4ce82aafbbbd83cf6bdf00
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      22 Aug 2026 · 07:39 UTC
    36. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-d9761bab226a0c8288f550c7
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      22 Aug 2026 · 13:29 UTC
    37. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-de60edeecde015f1f9b94390
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      22 Aug 2026 · 19:02 UTC
    38. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-61826a1941b1b224a85e054d
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      23 Aug 2026 · 05:22 UTC
    39. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-0510f900c5d24be817b894aa
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      23 Aug 2026 · 08:29 UTC
    40. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-35924b9b522e81fe498a2dfb
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      23 Aug 2026 · 18:03 UTC
    41. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-5e1357c794ace1a5f3d423cc
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      24 Aug 2026 · 02:38 UTC
    42. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-ce9725a1c1a4fb2e27fe7f8d
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      24 Aug 2026 · 17:22 UTC
    43. Deterministic refresh after a cited input, gate, or publication state changed.
      Revision
      machinev-2ce5e38a7ffec550050589ac
      Change type
      data-refresh
      Published
      26 Aug 2026 · 13:03 UTC
    Current report
    report.json
    Current revision
    machinev-2ce5e38a7ffec550050589ac
    Source case
    machine-source-80b1b871bed35fc29d24
    Source revision
    machine-sourcev-83c0999ae26834c7450cca8a

    What the machine was not allowed to use

    • analysis_mode
      value
      deterministic-machine-analysis
    • human_interviews
      value
      none
    • individual_allegations
      value
      none
    • inferred_motives
      value
      none
    • personal_data
      value
      none
    • prohibited_interpretations
      value
      ["Do not treat aggregate measurements as claims about identifiable people.", "Do not infer intent, motive, or responsibility from technical correlation.", "Do not describe this output as human reporting or a human interview."]